lamboblogging

Reminder: Despite it being the last race of the year, the St. Petersburg GP will NOT pay double points, unlike the finale in previous seasons. Also, the below scenarios assume Dixon does not get any bonus points (see notes below).

The short version:

- Dixon is champion if he finishes 9th or better.
- Newgarden is champion if…
- - He wins and leads the most laps, and Dixon finishes 10th or worse
- - He just wins, and Dixon finishes 12th or worse
- - He finishes 2nd, and Dixon finishes 19th-23rd, depending on Newgarden picking up bonus points.

The long version:

Current points standings:
Dixon - 502
Newgarden - 470 (-32)

Dixon wins in any tie scenario due to having more wins (4 vs 3). If Newgarden wins at St. Pete to tie the win count, Dixon still wins on tiebreakers due to him having more 2nds (2 vs 1). Therefore, Newgarden must gain 33 points over Dixon at St. Pete in order to become champion.

Newgarden Win Scenarios

Newgarden wins +1 for lap led = 51pts
Dixon 12th = 18pts (-33)

Newgarden wins +3 for most laps led = 53pts
| Dixon 10th = 20pts (-33)
|
| Dixon 9th = 22pts (-31)
| (Dixon is champion by 1pt)

Newgarden 2nd Place Scenarios

Newgarden 2nd +4 for pole and most laps led = 44pts
Dixon 19th = 11pts (-33)

Newgarden 2nd +3 for most laps led = 43pts
Dixon 20th = 10pts (-33)

Newgarden 2nd +1 for pole and +1 for lap led = 42pts
Dixon 21st = 9pts (-33)

Newgarden 2nd +1 for lap led = 41pts
Dixon 22nd = 8pts (-33)

Newgarden 2nd (no bonus points) = 40pts
Dixon 23th = 7pts (-33)

Newgarden 3rd Place Scenarios

Newgarden 3rd +4 for pole and most laps led = 39pts
Dixon 24th = 6pts (-33)

Newgarden 3rd +3 for most laps led = 38pts
Dixon 25th = 5pts (-33)

Notes

- In terms of points, Newgarden winning pole isn't super-critical. Assuming Dixon doesn't lead a lap and doesn't run into trouble, the only thing getting the pole point will do in most cases is create a points tie, which will always fall in Dixon's favor. Still, it's good for Newgarden to get in case he doesn't win and Dixon has trouble!

- If Dixon leads a lap, just the fact that he's running near the front or on good pit strategy in order to do this in the first place means Newgarden's chances are probably over anyway. A Newgarden pole would do wonders to help his case in this situation and cancel out the point. Otherwise, Dixon leading a lap buys him one extra position to finish behind a 2nd or 3rd place Newgarden and still win the championship. Won't help him if he falls back after leading and Newgarden wins, though.

- Newgarden can only hope to win the championship with a 3rd place finish if there is a large field of at least 24 cars. In this case, he needs to sweep the bonus points and hopes Dixon finishes dead last.

- Remember that Penske will have an extra car at St. Pete, that of Scott McLaughlin of Aussie Supercars fame making his debut.

Submitted October 04, 2020 at 05:32AM by WyndiMan https://ift.tt/3jwWcUG